KOmmies Fear Prospect Of Locked Democrat Convention
The Remaining Superdelegates; It's Not Pretty.
[As Steve Martin once said, Comedy Is Not Pretty.]
Well since Rachel Maddow's comments and various diaries that hit the rec list with regularity, the big question right now is whether Obama can close this thing out by the end of May. Since there are no primaries before that day, it will have to be done with SDs.
[Commence with the nail biting!]
Perhaps it is time to start breaking the remaining SDs down and see who might endorse Obama before the meeting on FL and MI. My apologies in advance for formatting issues.
[I consider the chaos to ensue from that May 31 meeting to be my birthday present.]
DemConWatch says there are 211 remaining SDs. If you add in members of the Pelosi Club who are in the Pelosi Club but are counted toward one candidate or another (Cantwell, Lofgren, Daschle) the actual number remaining is 214. Thirteen more delegates are currently outstanding, 4 from KY/OR not yet assigned, and 9 remaining Edwards delegates who have not endorsed. So the pool from which Obama can reach his magic number is 227.
[This KOmmie goes into such fine tune detail on delegate math that it will bore you so I will now just post a few of his math highlights...]
DemConWatch also says Obama needs 63 more delegates to reach the 2025 threshold. However, if you consider Lofgren and Daschle as undecided as I did above, that number becomes 65. More on why I do this below.
[In obsessive detail.]
So starting from 227, the first thing to consider is that 30 of those will not even be named by the end of May because they are add-ons not yet assigned. So the pool is now 197.
[Can we have an office pool on when you have your nervous breakdown?]
...So the 197 is down to 175. However, we must also consider there is a group of Add-ons and State Chairs who have not yet declared, but come from states Hillary won, thus they will have a hard time endorsing Obama.
[Don't forget to subtract 3 from all even numbers and multiply by 0.997.]
...So now we are at 170. However, there is also a couple of delegates who endanger themselves politically in future elections if they endorse Obama, such as Tom Udall and Nick Lampson (and there's probably plenty more), so we are down to 168. Take away vacancies that won't be filled by the end of May and we are down to 167. There's also 7 SDs from MT, South Dakota, and PR who have yet to endorse and probably won't by the end of May, so we are down to 160. Moss and Malone have indicated they will go with Hillary according to non-DemConWatch sources. Down to 158. Ooops, I missed five other state chairs from states Clinton won. Down to 153.
[Do you even have any fingernails left?]
...Down to 141. And while we are at it, we might as well throw out Senators from states Clinton won, DNC members from states Hillary won big, Governors from states Hillary won, and Congresspersons from 'white working class' states regardless of what happened in their district...
...We are down to 122. Speaking of political courage, time to address the Pelosi Club. They lack spines. If they truly were dedicated to the positions they have taken and behind the rules as they currently stand, they would have endorsed today. I feel safe throwing them out until after May...
[Before the flop or will you wait for the River?]
...We are down to 115. Since Colorado will host the Convention, I highly doubt any of the remaining CO delegates will endorse any time soon. Down to 110. Throw out the party's resident loon, Steve Ybarra, and we are down to 109. So that leaves these 109 people from whom Obama would need to gain 65 delegates between now and the end of May to clinch...
[So are you merely going to raise or go All-In?]
Now you can quivel with a few names here or there, but something is crystal clear, it is an uphill climb to get to 2025 by the end of May, and therefore it's looking more and more like this is going to the convention floor.
[Woo! Hoo! Operation Chaos has been an OUTSTANDING success!!! And now to hear from the other nervious KOmmies...]
People need to chill out. Nobody else is taking her candidacy seriously anymore, why should we?
[Just relax and allow Hillary to steal the nomination behind the scenes.]
He may not get 2025 by May 31, but these other contests will help put him over the top by June 3.
[Except that the magic number will ultimately be much higher than 2025.]
I believe the diarist is making the point that after May 31st the goal post will have changed to 2118 or 2131 I believe depending on full or half seating of MI/FL SD's. So unless the number is reached before may 31st, the likelihood of a convention fight or a VP slot for Hillary increases by 2 fold.
[Yup! And I'm wondering if the KOmmies have yet realized that Obama has won only a grand total of only TWO primaries in over two months.]
Steal the Nomination! Let's end all the polite conversation about the right thing to do with Florida and Michigan. The rules were broken, Hill agreed. End. Senator Hillary Clinton is looking under every bed she can to find a way to steal this nomination. She is a sore loser. End. Hill will never go away unless someone ends this "BS." I have said this before, I think Hillary has lost her mind if she really thinks the SD will overturn a nomination that Obama earned. Somtimes reality sucks. The sooner HRC accepts she lost and moves on the better she will be. I feel sorry for her. One last thing, if this were the other way around, can you imagine the Clinton Machine. They ran a dirty campaign and the good news is, for the most part it did not work. It's time "someone" grew some and told her the truth as she seems too messed up to see it. Very Sad.
[Until his recent recantation, Pied Piper Pitt declared the long drawn out Democrat primary to be a blessing.]
the situation doesn't look pretty, and when Obama doesn't get to 2025 by the end of may, there will be a committe ruling that WILL BE APPEALED to the convention by Hillary because she will not get what she says is the will of the voters (her getting all her delegates from MI, Obama getting none, Florida's delegates being apportioned as is).
[I find this situtuation to be very APPEALING.]
There's no two way around this. The candidate will be chosen at the convention, regardless of the delegate count, and if Hillary has arguments to get her there, I think she will take it there.
[GO HILLARY!!! And don't forget to thank Rush Limbaugh!]
I think Rep. Emanuel has the guts and the political savvy to put the final nail in the Clinton coffin. As goes Rahm, so goes the majority of the superdelegates. Only time will tell.
[Too bad for Obama because Rahm is a devout Clintonista.]
It's about f*cking time we demand they speak truth to power.
[Congrats! You are the first in this thread to use that overused leftwing cliché.]
I agree with Rachel Maddow -- it may be too late. The supers should have done it after May 6. I certainly expected it today. There are undercurrents that are very dangerous right now. Just listen to Hillary. This is far from over. And the fact that the party has let it get this bad is proof that they are willing to do what we consider unthinkable. But be open to thinking it.
[Let us now take time out to thank Howard Dean for this sad state of Democrat affairs. YEEEEEAAAGGGHHHHHHH!!!]
Thus, the can o' argument worms by Clinton will continue. PR, SD and MT will put Obama over 2025, but the magic number may not be 2025 come June.
The nightmare continues.
[Thanks to Operation Chaos!]
can't Dean just reschedule the may 31st meeting?
[And take away my birthday present?]
Be ready for a convention fight And President McCain. Because this party has now officially imploded.
[From your lips to Gaia's ears. BTW, be ready for President Romney if what I think will happen happens.]
Animal House flashback. Am I envisioning Kevin Bacon standing on the Pepsi Center floor saying "all is well" while chaos reigns all around him.
[I'm going to have to buy myself at least a dozen of my $1.50 large DiGiorno supreme pizzas for my Democrat convention entertainment viewing.]