Tuesday, December 27, 2005

DUmmie FUnnies 12-27-05 ("Kerry Won!!! Tool for Everyone to Prove It")

Have you ever been in the proximity of a member of the Flat Earth Society? If so, then you might have had the tedious experience of being subjected to endless "scientific" data to "prove" beyond a shadow of a doubt that the Earth is indeed flat. Likewise, the DUmmies are putting forth tons of statistical analysis to "prove" that Kerry actually did win the election in 2004. And speaking about 2004, this DUmmie THREAD hilariously titled, "Kerry Won!!! Tool for Everyone to Prove It-'Scoop'" was posted in DUmmieland YESTERDAY, not in the immediate aftermath of election 2004. Yes, the DUmmies still can't get over it. And like the pathetic members of the Flat Earth Society, they will overwhelm you with "facts" to "prove" that Kerry WON the election. As usual, the tool-toting DUmmie rants are in Bolshevik Red while the commentary of your humble correspondent, who has absolute statistical proof that Mondale beat Reagan, is in the [brackets]:

TruthIsAll Interview--Kerry Won!!! Tool for Everyone to Prove It-"Scoop"

[The Earth Is Flat!!! Tool for Everyone to Prove It---"Scoop"]

What more could you ask for on Christmas and the start of Hanukah. Well, it’s all here: the paper, the links, and the free Excel simulations. Happy Holidays!!!

[Happy Kwanzaa!!!]

Special for “Scoop” Independent Media
from Washington DC
Michael Collins
Dec. 21, 2005

[Methinks Michael Collins has consumed too many Tom Collins.]


The Law of Large Numbers & Central Limit Theorem: A Polling Simulation


Excel Polling Simulation Model

2004 Election Model Projection; Exit Poll Collection; Excel Interactive Election Simulation; Other links.

[My eyes glazeth over.]

The Kerry concession speech on November 3, 2004 marked the beginning, not the end of the controversy over the 2004 election. Just hours before the speech, Vice Presidential Candidate John Edwards emerged and said that, “John Kerry and I made a promise to the American people that in this election every vote would count and every vote will be counted."

[Including the votes the Democrats stole in the Washington state gubernatorial election?]

Democrats were in a state of shock. 2004 was a banner year for new registrations, party financial support, and activism. Reported new registrations favored Democrats all over the country. Democrats were well ahead of Republicans in new registrations in Ohio. South Florida, the “scene of the crime” in 2000, saw major Democratic efforts and a lackluster Republican response.

[Watching Susan Estrich's drunken face slobbering all over herself on Election Night, I would say the Democrats were well beyond mere shock.]

Democrats matched and exceeded Republicans in funds raised. For the first time, the internet proved to be a highly potent form of fund raising. The Democrats collected $10 million a month for the Kerry Campaign on the Internet alone. Other groups supporting the Democrats raised substantial funds. MoveOn.Org and New Democratic Network ran parallel campaign commercials and provided other support with the $25 million they raised during the election cycle.

Activism was at an all time high. People who had never worked in elections volunteered in large numbers and local Democratic parties throughout the country saw a surge in citizen participation.
While Kerry may have conceded the election at 2:14 p.m., Nov. 3, a large portion of the population failed to accept the final results. They knew something was wrong. As one Virginia activist said, “This is simply not possible, the national results or here in Virginia.”

[As one DUmmie said, "I BEEEELEEEEEVE!!!]


[Interview conducted in the Rubber Room.]

Why all this energy devoted to the 2004 election?

[To provide LOTS of comedy material for the DUmmie FUnnies.]

I was appalled when the election was stolen from Gore in 2000. I had posted daily projections of my Election Model on DU in the four months leading up to the election. The projections were based on state and national polls. The final national model had Kerry 51.6 % of the two-party vote; the state model 51.8 %. The state model included a Monte Carlo simulation with a Kerry expected total of 337 electoral votes.

[All the Monte Carlo simulation proved was that Kerry won 51.8% of the time at the roulette wheel.]

The initial exit polls and the Iowa Election Markets showed that Kerry was a 3% winner. When Bush came from nowhere after 9 p.m. to win, I had this feeling of Déjà vu. So I decided to confirm the doubts using mathematical probability analysis, based on the
preliminary exit poll data downloaded by Jonathan Simon.

[The Iowa Cattle Futures Markets show that Hillary will be nominated in '08.]

Anything you’d like to say in closing?

[They're coming to take me away, ha-ha!]

I’ll keep posting as long as I have something to say. If my work has in some small measure helped to raise awareness, then it’s all been worth it.

[If my work has in some small measure helped to keep DUmmies frustrated, then it's all been worth it.]

The miracle of timing that made the full set of national exit polls available to the world and the election fraud movement.

[This miracle rates right up there with Our Lady of Fatima.]


11:00 p.m. EM Server goes down. Exit Polls available on the Internet.

[Is that all? I was hoping the EM Server would go down and make the Petra Verkaik photos from her paid website available free on the Internet.]


12:25 a.m. Final National Exit Poll captured by Jonathan Simon.
3047 Respondents: Kerry 51% - Bush 48%

[That poll had insufficient data. It didn't include the write-in votes for Mary Carey.]

1:33 a.m. Edison Mitofsky Servers come back online effectively ending Internet access to the National Exit Polls.

[It was all a PLOT to keep the world from knowing that Kerry actually won in the Exit Polls.]

2:30* a.m. Vice Presidential candidate John Edwards addresses the crowd and nation promising to “fight for every vote.” (time approximate)

[2:40 a.m. Vice Presidential candidate John Edwards wastes a half hour fussing with his hair and staring at himself in his beauty compact.]

1:25 p.m. National Exit Poll revised by EM to take final election results into account 13,660 respondents: Kerry 48% - Bush 51%

[AHA! So Bush actually did win the exit polls. Well, that makes it official then. Whoever wins the exit polls wins the presidency. The actual voting results are just a mere technicality. It is the exit polls which really count.]

2:14 p.m. Kerry concedes the election to Bush.

[2:20 p.m. Kerry buys himself an extra-large jockstrap and a huntin' license.]

This remarkable sequence of events was not the beginning of the end but rather the end of the beginning. The remarkable intensity of research, analysis, and debate that energizes the modern day election fraud movement was born crying “foul!”

[Yes, yes. Quite remarkable...YAWN!]


The Law of Large Numbers & Central Limit Theorem: A Polling Simulation

by TruthIsAll


It's for those who say: "Math was my worst subject in high school".

If you've ever placed a bet at the casino or race track, or played the lottery, you already know the basics.

It's about probability.

It's about common sense.

It's not all that complicated.

[It's about hogwash.]

It's for individuals who have taken algebra, probability and statistics and want to see how they apply to election polling.

It's for graduates with degrees in mathematics, political science, an MBA, etc. who may or may not be familiar with simulation concepts. Simulation is a powerful tool for analyzing uncertainty- be it coin flipping or election polling.

It's for Excel spreadsheet users who enjoy creating math models.

It's for writers, blogs and politicians who seek the truth:

Robert Koehler, Brad from BradBlog, John Conyers, Barbara Boxer, Mark Miller, Fitrakis, Wasserman, USCV, Dopp, Freeman, Baiman, Simon, Alistair Thompson, Krugman, Keith Olberman, Mike Malloy, Randi Rhodes,Stephanie Miller, etc.

It's for Netizens who frequent Discussion Forums.

It's for those in the Media who are still waiting for editor approval to discuss documented incidents of vote spoilage, vote switching and vote suppression in recent elections and which are confirmed by impossible pre-election and exit poll deviations from the recorded vote.

It's for naysayers who promote faith-based hypotheticals in their unrelenting attempts to debunk the accuracy of the pre-election and exit polls.

[It's for obsessive DUmmies who refuse to accept the REALITY of the election results.]

I thought I was going nuts the evening of the election. Thank God I found DU...

[...which is Chock Full O' Nuts.]

Welcome! Lot's of good stuff to use there.
With "the obvious becoming OBVIOUS" to the wider public, the theft of 2004 (and 2002 GA & 2000) becomes highly relevant. After all, we're talking about LEGITIMACY!!!
Why should the people wait for the lazy CM to report this? They can just download the Excel program and prove it to themselves.

[I guess the attendants won't have to beat you with rubber mallets any more. They merely need to allow you to download that Excel program to keep you calm and secure in the knowledge that the program proves that Kerry really won.]

* Supporters need to "get out of it", the WH that is.

[You merely need to show them that Monte Carlo simulation to convince the EVIL Bushies to exit the White House.]

Election fraud: See it, hear it, speak it...Everyday, all day, 24/7.

[Election fraud obsession: See it, hear it, speak it...Everyday, all day, 24/7.]


Blogger Son Of The Godfather said...

Now, if we Rovians can get a copy of this ominous "Excel file" and plant a virus like in Independence Day, will all the Moonbat Motherships come crashing down around us?

8:50 AM  

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